Panamá liderará el crecimiento de la región en el 2016

marzo 9, 2016 4:01 pm Publicado por 337 Comentarios

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Se estima que para este año, en cuanto al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), Panamá obtenga un resultado de 6.3%

Panamá obtuvo una inflación de 1.0% el año pasado y se estima que para este 2016 se sitúe en 2.0%; en cuanto al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), el país logró obtener para el 2015 un resultado de 6.0% y para este año, se prevé que subirá un 6.3%, según el Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Así lo establece el informe trimestral de Datanalisis Latam, que analiza el dinamismo de la actividad económica y los principales indicadores macroeconómicos de nueve países de la región al cierre de 2015 y su proyección al 2016.

Entre las expectativas primordiales del 2016 para Panamá, se encuentra la culminación del Canal ampliado, vía interoceánica por la cual transita un gran porcentaje del comercio mundial, que permitirá que los ingresos del país mejoren.

En tanto, Colombia cerró el año 2015 con una depreciación acelerada del peso colombiano, que obtuvo una caída de 31.6% de su valor con respecto al dólar americano. Algunos factores que debilitaron la posición de la moneda colombiana a escala internacional se asocian con el incremento progresivo de la tasa de interés de referencia norteamericana y la caída del petróleo.

Para este 2016, pese a que Colombia presenta indicadores macroeconómicos sólidos frente al mercado global, el poder controlar la inflación e impulsar el crecimiento será una ardua labor.

En Costa Rica, el índice de actividad económica muestra una mejoría interanual de 2.83%. Este incremento es el mayor del 2015 y refleja crecimiento en sectores como la manufactura, con un 1.30%. La actividad agrícola, por su parte, fue la más afectada, con una tasa negativa 4.11%.

En cuanto a los indicadores macroeconómicos de El Salvador, un informe del Banco Central señala un crecimiento de 2.5% del PIB, con un incremento de la inversión extranjera directa en $655 millones y un aumento de las exportaciones de 4.8%.

Una de las mayores preocupaciones en este 2016 para Guatemala sigue siendo la turbulencia institucional de 2015 y el descenso de los precios de las materias primas, afectando al sector minero. Sin embargo, existen esperanzas en las exportaciones y flujos de remesas en las instituciones públicas. El Banco Central proyecta que para el 2016 exista un incremento del 1.8% del sector minero que difiere del 6.6% del 2015.

Cabe destacar que la economía hondureña está logrando un incremento de la inversión en la adquisición de maquinaria y equipo, principalmente de energía solar fotovoltaica, y tiene buen ritmo en el sector de la construcción. Sin embargo, para el 2015 se dio una disminución en la inversión en las plantaciones agrícolas y disminución de las existencias en las empresas.

Los indicadores en Nicaragua sostienen que su posición de reservas internacionales va en aumento, alcanzando un 9.5% llegando a $2.518,2 millones para diciembre del 2015. Fitch Rating le otorgó la calificación B+ a la deuda soberana de largo plazo con perspectiva estable.

Asimismo, Fitch Ratings reporta que para República Dominicana se perfila un crecimiento robusto para el 2016 y 2017 con un crecimiento de 5.1%, parte del crecimiento sería por el bajo precio de los hidrocarburos durante el 2015. Para sostener una baja inflación y un mayor crecimiento, se tendrá que disminuir la dependencia energética.

Las estimaciones de organizaciones internacionales ubican al 2015 y 2016 como años de profunda recesión en Venezuela. Para el 2016, el Banco Mundial proyecta una caída de 4.8%, mientras que el Fondo Monetario Internacional estimó en su último reporte de perspectivas un deterioro de 6.0%. Ambas señalan la importante presión que vive el país por la caída de los precios del petróleo, que evidenciará sus resultados en una contracción de los flujos en la balanza de pagos.

A nivel mundial existen algunos aspectos importantes para analizar en este 2016, entre ellos la debilidad de los precios de las materias primas, desaceleración del crecimiento de China y la recuperación de la economía de los Estados Unidos.

==========

REPORTE DE INFLACIÓN

La inflación en Panamá alcanzó el año pasado apenas el 1.0%.

  • 2.0% es el porcentaje de inflación que se espera para Panamá este 2016, según informó el Fondo Monetario Internacional.
Fuente: http://laestrella.com.pa/

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