Desvalorização cambial pode reduzir  volume de exportações através do Panamá

agosto 27, 2015 2:39 pm Publicado por 555 Comentarios

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Enquanto a crescente valorização do dólar, a moeda oficial dos Estados Unidos, segue alcançando valores máximos e históricos, o nervosismo se apodera de muitas economias da América Latina, principalmente Colômbia, onde o câmbio registra um recorde 3.000 por 1 diante do peso.

No Panamá, com uma economia dolarizada, os analistas econômicos prevêem outros efeitos. A depreciação das moedas estrangeiras diante do dólar, segundo os especialistas consultados por La Estrella do Panamá, incidem em um setor de vital importância para o país: os serviços e as exportações de outros países que passam pelo nosso território.

O economista Raúl  Moreira explicou que, com um dólar em alta frente às moedas da região, os produtos locais tornam-se mais caros. “As exportações sofrem porque se perde competitividade”,  sustentou Moreira.

Não obstante, indicou que ao contrário do que sucede com as exportações, as importações da região podem experimentar mudanças para cima.

“Se não houver controle irão aumentar as importações porque os produtos de fora ficam mais baratos”.  Esse fenômeno incide negativamente na produção local, advertiu.

Da mesma forma que Moreira, o economista Fernando Aramburu P., da Aramburu Porras e Associados, considera que “definitivamente, a desvaloriza’ão ou oerda de valor relativo das moedas de alguns países da América Latina como Brasil, Colômbia e México, entre outros, diante do dólar implica em um encarecimento dos bens e serviços exportáveis dos países que usam o dólar como moeda, como o Panamá e, desta forma, impacta na competitividade dos nossos produtos em relação a outros países, podendo afetar o volume de exportações dos mesmos”.

Por outro lado, Aramburu acrescentou que “isto também implica em barateamento dos bens e serviços desses países frente a frente com o mundo dolarizado, pelo que se torna mais atraente a importação dos seus produtos”.

No caso do Panamá, por ser uma economia principalmente de serviços e diversificada, estima-se que o impacto seja menor que nas economias exportadoras de produtos que tenham uma maior sensibilidade a variações de prêço”, afirmou Aramburu.

Sem dúvida, diante deste cenário, os especialistas recomendam às autoridades respectivas o estabelecimento de controles todas as vezes em que os custos dos produtos estrangeiros baixem seu valor e se tornem “vulneráveis” quando voltem a subir, já que o Panamá não conta com subsídios suficientes para superar suas perdas.

Para a economista Aracelly De León, “qualquer coisa é mera especulação, há que esperar os acontecimentos”.

Cabe destacar que, igual ao Panamá, em El Salvador e no Equador, cujas economias estão dolarizadas, o impacto é diferente daquele verificado no resto dos países da região.

De acordo com análise da firma J.P. Morgan, um dos fatores que explicam a tendência do fortalecimento do dólar diante das moedas emergentes da América Latina foi a decisão de Pequim (China) de desvalorizar o yuan na semana passada em três ocasiões.

As moedas estrangeiras mais desvalorizadas são as de Colômbia, México, Peru, Uruguai, Brasil e Argentina, apenas para mencionar algumas. 

Fonte: http://laestrella.com.pa/

 

Ernesto Chong de León, Ernesto Emilio Chong Coronado

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Esta entrada fue escrita porWebmaster PMC Asset Management

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